In the framework of Conference ARPEL 2015, experts stated that global energy consumption would increase by 50 % in the next 35 years.

Population growth, in addition to the increase in energy consumption, mainly in countries such as China and India, and the validity of fossil fuels as a key energy source, make climate change the most significant global geopolitical challenge for the next ten years.

This was one of the main conclusions reached on the first day of the Oil and Natural Gas Conference ARPEL 2015, an event that is being successfully held in Punta del Este, Uruguay, with the attendance of more than 300 senior representatives of the continental energy sector, under the theme: "Cooperation and innovation for a sustainable energy development."

According to Pierce Riemmer, Director General of the World Petroleum Council (WPC), by 2050, the energy industry must supply more than 9,000 million people, a third of whom live in China and India. This factor, coupled with the fact that oil and its derivatives will continue to dominate the energy supply, poses a challenge when addressing responsible management of energy resources. "We know that the world population will increase and we will need all possible forms of energy," Riemmer said.

In this regard, the projection presented by Pal Rasmussen, Secretary General of the International Gas Union (IGU), is that world energy consumption will increase 50 % in the next 35 years, especially, because there are about 4,000 million people in the world who still do not have access to energy.

In addition, Carlos Pascual, Senior Vice President of the consulting firm IHS, in his speech about "Geopolitics, risks and opportunities," said that the greatest challenge in the next ten years would be climate change, because of the higher energy consumption based on fossil fuels. "If we want to understand the global geopolitical perspectives, we must take into account a much broader context that considers the oil and gas demand structure, in addition to the changes in production and the implications of climate change," he said.

One of the significant issues of the day was linked to the low crude oil prices and their global impacts.

For Pascual, the supply of crude oil in the international market may continue to grow as players return to the market. For example, if Iran and the United States make progress in the Lausanne agreement, which eases sanctions on the country due to its nuclear program. "The impact of such an agreement would mean the entry of 300,000 additional barrels of oil per day to the market," he said.

The experts agreed that this possible increased oil supply, apart from the position of Saudi Arabia not to reduce production in the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), configures a scenario where manufacturers will have to be more competitive so as not to lose their market share.

"There is one country in the world that has the outstanding ability of increasing production in 30 days and maintaining it for another 90 days in times of crisis. This is Saudi Arabia. We cannot forget that it will continue to play a key role in the market and should see if it will do so politically as until now," Pascual said.

Conference ARPEL 2015 will last until Thursday, April 9 and is held in the framework of the 50th anniversary of the Regional Association. Present at the opening ceremony were Carolina Cosse, Minister of Industry, Energy and Mining of Uruguay, José Coya, President of ANCAP, and Benito Piñeiro, Chairman of the Board of Directors of ARPEL.

Minister Cosse thanked ARPEL for having organized the event in Uruguay despite the adversities faced by the sector and highlighted the actions that the Uruguayan Government is taking in promoting investment, improving education, and reducing poverty. "It is important for Uruguay that this event takes place here," she said. In 2015, the government declared the ARPEL Conference of national interest.

The Regional Association of Oil, Gas and Biofuels Sector Companies in Latin America and the Caribbean (ARPEL) is a non-profit organization founded in 1965. Its membership currently represents over 90 % of the upstream and downstream activities in the region, and includes national and international operating companies and providers of goods and services.